Ormuz: queda no AIS, radar e preços medem fenômenos diferentes

Principais conclusões

A nota em 30 segundos

O que o AIS observa

Período	Dias	Passagens por dia
2025	365	48,2
01/03 a 04/10/2026	218	2,6

Média móvel de sete dias corridos; até 04/10/2026. Não mede barris transportados nem tráfego não observado.

Fonte: IMF PortWatch

Ver os dados

Período	Petroleiros por dia
2025-09-01	57,429
2025-09-02	58,286
2025-09-03	57,429
2025-09-04	53,857
2025-09-05	57,286
2025-09-06	55,857
2025-09-07	55,143
2025-09-08	53,571
2025-09-09	53,286
2025-09-10	54,000
2025-09-11	53,143
2025-09-12	48,286
2025-09-13	43,714
2025-09-14	41,429
2025-09-15	38,000
2025-09-16	40,714
2025-09-17	42,286
2025-09-18	47,000
2025-09-19	46,429
2025-09-20	48,429
2025-09-21	50,143
2025-09-22	50,571
2025-09-23	49,286
2025-09-24	48,857
2025-09-25	43,143
2025-09-26	43,286
2025-09-27	45,286
2025-09-28	48,857
2025-09-29	53,571
2025-09-30	54,000
2025-10-01	56,857
2025-10-02	61,143
2025-10-03	63,571
2025-10-04	65,429
2025-10-05	64,857
2025-10-06	61,143
2025-10-07	61,143
2025-10-08	54,571
2025-10-09	50,857
2025-10-10	47,429
2025-10-11	42,571
2025-10-12	35,571
2025-10-13	34,714
2025-10-14	35,714
2025-10-15	37,429
2025-10-16	37,143
2025-10-17	36,143
2025-10-18	36,714
2025-10-19	40,143
2025-10-20	41,571
2025-10-21	40,143
2025-10-22	44,000
2025-10-23	48,286
2025-10-24	53,857
2025-10-25	56,429
2025-10-26	58,143
2025-10-27	59,429
2025-10-28	59,286
2025-10-29	60,000
2025-10-30	58,571
2025-10-31	55,571
2025-11-01	53,571
2025-11-02	50,143
2025-11-03	45,571
2025-11-04	45,286
2025-11-05	42,000
2025-11-06	40,714
2025-11-07	39,857
2025-11-08	42,143
2025-11-09	43,571
2025-11-10	45,857
2025-11-11	47,286
2025-11-12	46,429
2025-11-13	48,143
2025-11-14	49,714
2025-11-15	46,143
2025-11-16	44,429
2025-11-17	43,286
2025-11-18	40,571
2025-11-19	40,143
2025-11-20	39,000
2025-11-21	36,857
2025-11-22	35,714
2025-11-23	34,857
2025-11-24	33,429
2025-11-25	32,714
2025-11-26	31,857
2025-11-27	29,857
2025-11-28	29,000
2025-11-29	28,857
2025-11-30	30,000
2025-12-01	31,714
2025-12-02	30,857
2025-12-03	30,000
2025-12-04	30,143
2025-12-05	30,143
2025-12-06	31,571
2025-12-07	32,286
2025-12-08	31,143
2025-12-09	33,429
2025-12-10	34,143
2025-12-11	34,143
2025-12-12	33,571
2025-12-13	31,714
2025-12-14	31,143
2025-12-15	29,857
2025-12-16	27,714
2025-12-17	27,857
2025-12-18	28,286
2025-12-19	27,571
2025-12-20	26,714
2025-12-21	25,714
2025-12-22	26,857
2025-12-23	26,143
2025-12-24	25,714
2025-12-25	25,571
2025-12-26	28,286
2025-12-27	31,000
2025-12-28	30,286
2025-12-29	30,286
2025-12-30	31,571
2025-12-31	34,000
2026-01-01	33,571
2026-01-02	31,714
2026-01-03	31,000
2026-01-04	31,286
2026-01-05	31,857
2026-01-06	31,286
2026-01-07	30,000
2026-01-08	31,143
2026-01-09	33,571
2026-01-10	33,571
2026-01-11	34,286
2026-01-12	34,857
2026-01-13	34,143
2026-01-14	33,714
2026-01-15	33,429
2026-01-16	31,857
2026-01-17	30,286
2026-01-18	28,714
2026-01-19	28,000
2026-01-20	29,000
2026-01-21	28,286
2026-01-22	28,714
2026-01-23	28,000
2026-01-24	27,714
2026-01-25	30,714
2026-01-26	29,286
2026-01-27	28,857
2026-01-28	28,714
2026-01-29	29,143
2026-01-30	31,286
2026-01-31	34,000
2026-02-01	30,857
2026-02-02	34,000
2026-02-03	34,429
2026-02-04	33,286
2026-02-05	32,571
2026-02-06	31,857
2026-02-07	31,857
2026-02-08	33,714
2026-02-09	32,571
2026-02-10	33,429
2026-02-11	37,571
2026-02-12	37,000
2026-02-13	39,857
2026-02-14	41,714
2026-02-15	43,143
2026-02-16	43,429
2026-02-17	43,571
2026-02-18	44,286
2026-02-19	48,714
2026-02-20	48,857
2026-02-21	48,857
2026-02-22	52,714
2026-02-23	57,000
2026-02-24	58,286
2026-02-25	59,000
2026-02-26	56,429
2026-02-27	53,857
2026-02-28	51,429
2026-03-01	42,286
2026-03-02	33,143
2026-03-03	26,286
2026-03-04	17,857
2026-03-05	11,571
2026-03-06	6,286
2026-03-07	1,286
2026-03-08	0,571
2026-03-09	0,571
2026-03-10	0,571
2026-03-11	0,571
2026-03-12	0,429
2026-03-13	0,429
2026-03-14	0,286
2026-03-15	0,571
2026-03-16	0,429
2026-03-17	0,429
2026-03-18	0,429
2026-03-19	0,429
2026-03-20	0,714
2026-03-21	0,714
2026-03-22	0,429
2026-03-23	0,714
2026-03-24	0,714
2026-03-25	1,000
2026-03-26	1,000
2026-03-27	0,714
2026-03-28	0,857
2026-03-29	1,143
2026-03-30	1,286
2026-03-31	1,429
2026-04-01	1,286
2026-04-02	1,286
2026-04-03	1,571
2026-04-04	1,857
2026-04-05	2,143
2026-04-06	1,714
2026-04-07	1,714
2026-04-08	1,571
2026-04-09	2,286
2026-04-10	2,000
2026-04-11	2,000
2026-04-12	1,857
2026-04-13	2,429
2026-04-14	2,571
2026-04-15	3,143
2026-04-16	2,571
2026-04-17	3,000
2026-04-18	4,286
2026-04-19	4,000
2026-04-20	3,714
2026-04-21	3,714
2026-04-22	3,429
2026-04-23	3,286
2026-04-24	3,143
2026-04-25	1,714
2026-04-26	1,714
2026-04-27	1,714
2026-04-28	1,714
2026-04-29	4,714
2026-04-30	5,286
2026-05-01	5,286
2026-05-02	5,571
2026-05-03	5,571
2026-05-04	5,286
2026-05-05	4,857
2026-05-06	1,571
2026-05-07	1,000
2026-05-08	0,714
2026-05-09	0,286
2026-05-10	0,429
2026-05-11	1,000
2026-05-12	1,143
2026-05-13	1,429
2026-05-14	1,857
2026-05-15	2,143
2026-05-16	2,143
2026-05-17	2,000
2026-05-18	1,571
2026-05-19	1,857
2026-05-20	2,143
2026-05-21	2,000
2026-05-22	1,714
2026-05-23	1,714
2026-05-24	1,857
2026-05-25	1,714
2026-05-26	1,571
2026-05-27	1,143
2026-05-28	0,857
2026-05-29	0,857
2026-05-30	0,714
2026-05-31	0,429
2026-06-01	0,571
2026-06-02	0,714
2026-06-03	1,000
2026-06-04	1,143
2026-06-05	1,143
2026-06-06	1,143
2026-06-07	1,143
2026-06-08	1,143
2026-06-09	1,000
2026-06-10	0,571
2026-06-11	0,714
2026-06-12	0,857
2026-06-13	0,857
2026-06-14	0,857
2026-06-15	1,000
2026-06-16	1,143
2026-06-17	1,143
2026-06-18	2,286
2026-06-19	2,571
2026-06-20	4,286
2026-06-21	4,429
2026-06-22	5,857
2026-06-23	7,143
2026-06-24	10,000
2026-06-25	11,571
2026-06-26	13,571
2026-06-27	13,143
2026-06-28	14,000
2026-06-29	14,143
2026-06-30	13,286
2026-07-01	13,000
2026-07-02	12,143
2026-07-03	12,143
2026-07-04	12,000
2026-07-05	13,286
2026-07-06	13,714
2026-07-07	14,286
2026-07-08	12,857
2026-07-09	11,143
2026-07-10	9,286
2026-07-11	8,571
2026-07-12	6,429
2026-07-13	4,429
2026-07-14	3,714
2026-07-15	3,000
2026-07-16	2,714
2026-07-17	2,286
2026-07-18	2,143
2026-07-19	2,286
2026-07-20	2,286
2026-07-21	1,714
2026-07-22	1,429
2026-07-23	1,286
2026-07-24	1,143
2026-07-25	0,857
2026-07-26	0,857
2026-07-27	0,571
2026-07-28	0,571
2026-07-29	0,857
2026-07-30	1,000
2026-07-31	1,286
2026-08-01	1,714
2026-08-02	1,429
2026-08-03	1,857
2026-08-04	2,286
2026-08-05	1,857
2026-08-06	1,714
2026-08-07	2,000
2026-08-08	1,857
2026-08-09	1,857
2026-08-10	1,714
2026-08-11	1,429
2026-08-12	1,571
2026-08-13	1,857
2026-08-14	1,571
2026-08-15	1,429
2026-08-16	1,571
2026-08-17	1,714
2026-08-18	2,000
2026-08-19	2,429
2026-08-20	2,429
2026-08-21	2,429
2026-08-22	2,429
2026-08-23	2,429
2026-08-24	2,286
2026-08-25	2,286
2026-08-26	2,000
2026-08-27	2,000
2026-08-28	1,714
2026-08-29	1,714
2026-08-30	1,857
2026-08-31	1,714
2026-09-01	1,286
2026-09-02	1,143
2026-09-03	1,000
2026-09-04	1,000
2026-09-05	0,857
2026-09-06	0,857
2026-09-07	1,000
2026-09-08	1,143
2026-09-09	1,000
2026-09-10	1,000
2026-09-11	1,429
2026-09-12	1,571
2026-09-13	1,429
2026-09-14	1,143
2026-09-15	1,000
2026-09-16	1,000
2026-09-17	0,857
2026-09-18	0,714
2026-09-19	0,714
2026-09-20	0,571
2026-09-21	0,571
2026-09-22	0,571
2026-09-23	0,714
2026-09-24	1,143
2026-09-25	1,143
2026-09-26	1,143
2026-09-27	1,286
2026-09-28	1,571
2026-09-29	1,429
2026-09-30	1,857
2026-10-01	1,429
2026-10-02	1,143
2026-10-03	1,000
2026-10-04	0,857

A referência de 2025 e o período desde março usam a mesma série diária. A média mensal de setembro foi 1,1 passagens por dia. O recorte diário inclui quatro dias de outubro, explicitamente; as comparações mensais terminam em setembro. Ausência de recepção AIS não permite inferir sozinho o movimento físico ou a decisão do comandante.

O que o radar acrescenta

Percentual de detecções, não de navios distintos. Cobertura, recepção e associação afetam a comparação.

Fonte: Global Fishing Watch, Sentinel-1

Ver os dados

Período	Fujairah	Corredor	Dubai e Sharjah
out/25–fev/26	34,033	24,234	3,207
mar–jun/26	68,587	39,216	47,128
jul–set/26	41,447	32,468	15,779

O radar identifica detecções compatíveis com embarcações. A falta de associação AIS pode refletir transmissão, recepção, posição ou limitações da associação. Uma mesma embarcação pode aparecer em mais de uma passagem do satélite. Mesmo a proporção sem AIS pode mudar com a cobertura espacial e temporal; não é uma medida corrigida de esforço de observação.

Presença nos terminais

Média de 2025 = 100. Classificação e cobertura podem variar. Presença não demonstra carregamento ou quantidade exportada.

Fonte: Global Fishing Watch

Ver os dados

Período	Ras Tanura	Yanbu	Basra
2025-01	100,173	97,593	103,713
2025-02	90,501	93,610	101,092
2025-03	94,646	95,602	104,087
2025-04	95,337	107,552	103,339
2025-05	95,337	88,631	97,722
2025-06	86,356	93,610	92,855
2025-07	94,646	98,589	101,466
2025-08	108,463	99,585	101,841
2025-09	108,463	107,552	101,466
2025-10	102,936	105,560	99,220
2025-11	114,680	105,560	96,599
2025-12	108,463	106,556	96,599
2026-01	104,318	111,535	89,111
2026-02	96,718	106,556	87,239
2026-03	35,233	147,386	34,446
2026-04	13,817	156,349	31,451
2026-05	13,126	137,427	26,958
2026-06	13,817	130,456	34,446
2026-07	19,344	97,593	43,058
2026-08	14,508	10,954	35,195
2026-09	13,126	7,967	28,830

As séries de AIS e radar têm universos diferentes e não devem ser somadas ou subtraídas para estimar frota oculta. A presença em um terminal não demonstra carregamento. Mudanças na classificação dos navios e na cobertura impedem tratar a contagem automaticamente como um piso de precisão conhecida.

Preços em bases separadas

Diesel ULSD de Nova York convertido de US$/galão para US$/barril. Referências distintas, sem decomposição causal.

Fonte: EIA

Ver os dados

Período	Brent	Diesel Nova York
2025-09-01	67,090	—
2025-09-02	68,090	101,640
2025-09-03	67,760	101,090
2025-09-04	66,410	99,750
2025-09-05	64,920	98,320
2025-09-08	65,440	99,540
2025-09-09	67,970	99,580
2025-09-10	67,620	100,170
2025-09-11	67,250	97,730
2025-09-12	67,870	98,410
2025-09-15	67,880	100,090
2025-09-16	69,690	102,730
2025-09-17	69,190	100,840
2025-09-18	67,830	100,510
2025-09-19	67,050	98,780
2025-09-22	66,870	98,570
2025-09-23	67,960	100,300
2025-09-24	69,640	101,810
2025-09-25	70,480	104,080
2025-09-26	71,150	103,950
2025-09-29	69,000	100,460
2025-09-30	68,520	99,920
2025-10-01	66,670	98,740
2025-10-02	65,440	96,520
2025-10-03	66,130	96,140
2025-10-06	67,090	96,730
2025-10-07	67,100	97,730
2025-10-08	67,420	98,200
2025-10-09	67,230	97,650
2025-10-10	64,410	94,540
2025-10-13	64,150	—
2025-10-14	63,000	94,500
2025-10-15	62,330	94,080
2025-10-16	61,080	92,650
2025-10-17	61,230	93,620
2025-10-20	60,710	94,000
2025-10-21	61,000	95,000
2025-10-22	62,280	97,900
2025-10-23	66,320	102,400
2025-10-24	65,800	102,770
2025-10-27	65,520	104,710
2025-10-28	64,030	101,560
2025-10-29	65,010	103,780
2025-10-30	65,110	103,950
2025-10-31	65,440	102,770
2025-11-03	65,790	103,150
2025-11-04	65,040	104,500
2025-11-05	63,540	104,160
2025-11-06	63,410	107,140
2025-11-07	63,720	106,390
2025-11-10	63,010	107,100
2025-11-11	63,860	—
2025-11-12	61,880	106,220
2025-11-13	62,140	105,880
2025-11-14	63,450	108,610
2025-11-17	63,160	108,820
2025-11-18	64,860	115,210
2025-11-19	63,780	113,480
2025-11-20	63,640	108,150
2025-11-21	62,780	104,620
2025-11-24	64,830	103,660
2025-11-25	63,990	101,050
2025-11-26	64,810	99,790
2025-11-27	64,180	—
2025-11-28	64,070	99,750
2025-12-01	64,220	100,550
2025-12-02	63,370	98,950
2025-12-03	63,750	98,700
2025-12-04	64,150	99,540
2025-12-05	64,420	101,560
2025-12-08	63,300	98,620
2025-12-09	62,620	97,270
2025-12-10	63,120	97,990
2025-12-11	61,870	96,260
2025-12-12	62,110	94,580
2025-12-15	61,550	93,620
2025-12-16	59,930	91,520
2025-12-17	60,610	93,450
2025-12-18	60,690	91,690
2025-12-19	61,350	91,390
2025-12-22	62,220	92,650
2025-12-23	63,700	94,290
2025-12-24	63,700	92,900
2025-12-29	63,100	90,680
2025-12-30	62,300	91,690
2025-12-31	61,350	90,470
2026-01-02	61,980	89,040
2026-01-05	63,000	90,300
2026-01-06	62,100	88,410
2026-01-07	61,080	87,820
2026-01-08	63,340	91,010
2026-01-09	65,110	90,470
2026-01-12	65,400	91,600
2026-01-13	67,580	94,420
2026-01-14	68,870	93,950
2026-01-15	66,160	93,110
2026-01-16	66,970	94,040
2026-01-19	66,910	—
2026-01-20	67,680	95,800
2026-01-21	66,720	98,030
2026-01-22	65,460	96,220
2026-01-23	68,160	98,070
2026-01-26	67,700	97,310
2026-01-27	70,280	99,460
2026-01-28	70,900	100,550
2026-01-29	71,000	103,030
2026-01-30	72,250	104,240
2026-02-02	67,720	96,050
2026-02-03	70,010	98,910
2026-02-04	71,150	99,620
2026-02-05	69,870	98,280
2026-02-06	70,450	98,740
2026-02-09	71,190	99,750
2026-02-10	71,010	99,040
2026-02-11	71,520	100,420
2026-02-12	69,800	97,650
2026-02-13	69,960	102,230
2026-02-16	70,810	—
2026-02-17	69,770	102,480
2026-02-18	71,780	107,900
2026-02-19	73,170	111,590
2026-02-20	72,750	110,590
2026-02-23	71,900	115,210
2026-02-24	71,210	116,680
2026-02-25	70,690	114,530
2026-02-26	71,660	113,440
2026-02-27	71,320	112,810
2026-03-02	77,240	125,790
2026-03-03	83,280	135,410
2026-03-04	81,560	142,090
2026-03-05	88,590	147,880
2026-03-06	95,740	154,640
2026-03-09	94,350	141,040
2026-03-10	89,840	145,150
2026-03-11	90,980	159,640
2026-03-12	102,380	168,420
2026-03-13	103,230	170,060
2026-03-16	101,040	163,670
2026-03-17	108,390	170,650
2026-03-18	118,090	185,980
2026-03-19	111,050	183,830
2026-03-20	118,420	197,900
2026-03-23	103,790	175,850
2026-03-24	108,420	175,350
2026-03-25	109,140	171,190
2026-03-26	113,390	180,180
2026-03-27	121,470	193,410
2026-03-30	121,880	188,750
2026-03-31	126,690	177,370
2026-04-01	119,560	172,030
2026-04-02	127,610	189,380
2026-04-07	138,210	183,040
2026-04-08	122,110	164,980
2026-04-09	119,030	167,200
2026-04-10	119,070	158,550
2026-04-13	123,280	161,200
2026-04-14	118,690	155,230
2026-04-15	114,930	159,180
2026-04-16	116,630	161,870
2026-04-17	98,630	146,290
2026-04-20	103,400	151,120
2026-04-21	106,140	161,570
2026-04-22	113,440	166,820
2026-04-23	113,250	171,360
2026-04-24	111,860	169,220
2026-04-27	113,890	168,590
2026-04-28	117,620	169,470
2026-04-29	124,160	179,090
2026-04-30	124,240	177,110
2026-05-01	118,260	168,670
2026-05-05	114,510	172,790
2026-05-06	103,700	161,410
2026-05-07	101,820	164,890
2026-05-08	103,480	164,930
2026-05-11	106,110	170,140
2026-05-12	111,370	176,610
2026-05-13	110,280	169,680
2026-05-14	110,910	168,210
2026-05-15	113,960	174,850
2026-05-18	116,730	174,340
2026-05-19	114,640	180,100
2026-05-20	108,930	169,510
2026-05-21	105,840	166,910
2026-05-22	106,900	166,190
2026-05-26	102,750	158,630
2026-05-27	97,110	154,180
2026-05-28	95,470	152,040
2026-05-29	92,880	148,050
2026-06-01	98,290	153,550
2026-06-02	98,490	154,900
2026-06-03	101,690	161,740
2026-06-04	98,980	153,970
2026-06-05	97,290	151,070
2026-06-08	97,460	150,650
2026-06-09	94,150	148,090
2026-06-10	95,730	153,050
2026-06-11	92,840	145,740
2026-06-12	88,640	143,090
2026-06-15	84,360	137,680
2026-06-16	80,500	134,690
2026-06-17	80,330	133,220
2026-06-18	79,350	131,380
2026-06-19	80,460	—
2026-06-22	76,490	129,950
2026-06-23	75,690	133,270
2026-06-24	72,090	132,640
2026-06-25	73,740	138,560
2026-06-26	70,160	135,200
2026-06-29	71,590	139,270
2026-06-30	70,460	138,010
2026-07-01	69,240	135,240
2026-07-02	68,530	133,940
2026-07-03	68,680	—
2026-07-06	69,560	138,850
2026-07-07	71,780	141,540
2026-07-08	76,500	156,160
2026-07-09	74,460	150,440
2026-07-10	74,340	150,070
2026-07-13	81,620	162,370
2026-07-14	83,690	169,890
2026-07-15	83,080	167,710
2026-07-16	81,230	170,810
2026-07-17	85,010	171,700
2026-07-20	86,990	172,960
2026-07-21	93,850	173,840
2026-07-22	94,120	173,670
2026-07-23	105,320	183,120
2026-07-24	100,310	177,790
2026-07-27	91,820	172,330
2026-07-28	85,510	174,800
2026-07-29	91,950	185,850
2026-07-30	91,910	177,870
2026-07-31	96,950	174,760
2026-08-03	88,900	163,720
2026-08-04	86,470	157,790
2026-08-05	86,650	160,400
2026-08-06	89,650	166,530
2026-08-07	87,620	164,220
2026-08-10	92,740	176,900
2026-08-11	93,260	181,650
2026-08-12	92,520	182,490
2026-08-13	92,030	180,810
2026-08-14	92,020	181,940
2026-08-17	92,430	190,340
2026-08-18	95,290	191,100
2026-08-19	92,370	189,920
2026-08-20	94,000	191,860
2026-08-21	96,920	187,870
2026-08-24	92,710	179,260
2026-08-25	88,240	175,810
2026-08-26	87,770	177,700
2026-08-27	90,180	179,470
2026-08-28	89,750	182,740
2026-09-01	96,020	198,410
2026-09-02	97,590	195,970
2026-09-03	100,520	192,860
2026-09-04	102,240	191,060
2026-09-07	104,470	—
2026-09-08	106,120	195,050
2026-09-09	109,510	203,700
2026-09-10	120,980	217,140
2026-09-11	118,060	212,020
2026-09-14	121,250	213,280
2026-09-15	130,800	224,200
2026-09-16	127,840	225,330
2026-09-17	121,180	217,310
2026-09-18	119,660	216,720
2026-09-21	116,150	209,030
2026-09-22	114,890	210,290
2026-09-23	117,450	208,400
2026-09-24	120,920	205,000
2026-09-25	116,010	207,860
2026-09-28	119,970	206,220
2026-09-29	113,960	209,960
2026-09-30	115,910	210,970

Diferença entre médias mensais, com os calendários disponíveis de cada cotação. Não representa lucro ou margem financeira de refinaria.

Fonte: EIA

Ver os dados

Período	Valor
2025-01	25,080
2025-02	28,350
2025-03	21,610
2025-04	21,380
2025-05	22,990
2025-06	24,360
2025-07	31,990
2025-08	29,780
2025-09	32,410
2025-10	33,640
2025-11	42,190
2025-12	32,380
2026-01	28,240
2026-02	34,160
2026-03	62,970
2026-04	50,230
2026-05	59,560
2026-06	57,440
2026-07	80,590
2026-08	87,550
2026-09	93,970

A variação dos preços pode coincidir com notícias, estoques, demanda e restrições de oferta. Estas séries, isoladamente, não atribuem a variação a uma negociação ou evento específico. A referência de diesel americana também não equivale ao custo de importação brasileiro ou ao preço na bomba.

O Brasil por destino declarado

Mesmos meses nos dois anos; três destinos selecionados. Não identifica porto, rota ou substituição de petróleo de outra origem.

Fonte: Comex Stat (MDIC)

Ver os dados

Período	China	Índia	Estados Unidos
jan–set/25	43,829	3,327	11,949
jan–set/26	50,440	6,829	6,253

A comparação usa massa de petróleo exportada e os mesmos meses de cada ano. Não representa o movimento de toda a Ásia ou Europa e não demonstra por que o comprador mudou de fornecedor.

O que observar

• Se uma mudança no AIS vem acompanhada de informação independente sobre volumes, preservando os períodos e a cobertura.
• Se os movimentos do radar persistem após considerar esforço de observação e associação AIS.
• Se preço, presença nos terminais e comércio exterior mudam no mesmo sentido, sem tratá-los como medidas intercambiáveis.

Metodologia e limitações

Fontes: IMF PortWatch para passagens observadas; Global Fishing Watch e Sentinel-1 para radar e presença AIS; EIA para cotações; Comex Stat para comércio exterior. Os gráficos trazem seus próprios períodos, unidades e tabelas. Trata-se de retrato das bases arquivadas, não de atualização de todas as fontes até a data desta revisão.

A revisão conferiu agregações, calendários e denominadores das séries disponíveis. Não certifica a completude do AIS, classifica individualmente cada detecção ou estima carga transportada. As narrativas de viagens específicas são tratadas na nota dedicada à Dynacom, com suas próprias limitações. Afirmações jornalísticas e regulatórias não revalidadas foram retiradas deste retrato.

Correções

11/10/2026: separadas passagens AIS, detecções e presença nos terminais; retiradas inferências de desligamento, carga, causalidade de preços e afirmações externas não revalidadas. Diferencial não é margem de refino. Janelas mensais encerradas, médias de sete dias corridos e tabelas na frequência de cada gráfico.